SPCX
Procure Space ETF
AVOID
Sentiment
Bearish
Confidence
High
Timeframe
Unspecified
Holding
No
AI Analysis

The investment signal to avoid the Procure Space ETF (SPCX) stems from the upcoming public offering of SpaceX, which is being valued at nearly a hundred times its sales, in stark contrast to Amazon's valuation of three times sales. Thebriandecker emphasizes that the critical question is not whether SpaceX is a great company, but rather if there is any upside left at its current price. He estimates that, assuming optimal conditions, SpaceX could reach $100 billion in sales by 2030, which would still equate to an 18 times sales valuation, significantly higher than the typical trading multiple of around 10. Thebriandecker warns that while there is substantial demand from index funds and retail investors, this demand is already reflected in the stock price, and insiders will be able to sell approximately 20% of their shares after the first earnings report, creating a potential oversupply. This situation implies that retail investors may become exit liquidity for early investors, leading to a bearish outlook on SpaceX at its current valuation. For those tracking this investor, it suggests a cautious approach to investing in SpaceX and related ETFs, as the current price may not reflect future growth potential.

Source
T
@thebriandecker
Trust 6/10
Posted June 11, 2026 · 9:16 AM PDT
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Price Chart
Market Data
via Yahoo Finance · live
$133.11
+15.83%
Market Cap
$1.75T
Fwd P/E
71.8
52-Week Range
$104.83
$225.64
Volume 242130745
Avg Volume 120778720
Industrials Aerospace & Defense
Reel Summary

Advises against buying SpaceX at its current price due to high valuation compared to potential future sales.

Reel Transcript
View reel
SpaceX goes public tomorrow and almost a hundred times sales on its valuation and Amazon only trades at three. Let me show you the trap you probably haven't seen. Everyone's kind of arguing whether SpaceX is a great company and that's completely the wrong question. The real question is, is there any upside left for you at the current price? So let's be generous. Let's assume everything goes right. Starlink keeps growing, $26 billion a year, and AI deals with Google and Anthropic. They all ramp up, star shipworks, even then SpaceX might hit a hundred billion in sales by 2030. That sounds incredible, but at that price, you're still paying 18 times sales on where they're going to be in four years. Most companies, they trade around 10. And here's the setup. Yes, index funds are about ready to be forced to buy this stock, tens of billions of dollars no matter the price, and retail they're flooding in. Because everybody knows the demand is coming, but it's already baked into the price. And the supply, while the lockups are staggered, insiders can start selling well before the usual six months, about 20% after the first earnings report. So demand is screaming right now, but guess what? The selling is coming later, and that's the trap. Retail sales at the demand and they forget about the supply, and they become the exit liquidity, the person that early investors are quietly going to sell to. So SpaceX, they definitely are going to change the world. I'm not betting against that company. I'm just betting against buying it at the current price. So for now, I'm staying clear and follow me for what Wall Street won't say to keep you out.